The northern France operation has 1.5 million tons assembled against a stated requirement of 845,000 tons, yet the displayed chance of success is only 29 percent. Nearby French opposition consists of three cruisers, two light cruisers, and four destroyers. The much larger British concentration includes fifteen battleships, twenty-two battlecruisers, twelve cruisers and light cruisers, twenty-eight destroyers, four coastal submarines, and three minelaying submarines. The scenario's invasion calculation therefore includes friction beyond friendly tonnage and the apparent local surface-force ratio. The other factors behind the low percentage are not revealed.
Notable Point · 2:31:33-2:33:12
More invasion tonnage does not guarantee success
Even 1.5 million tons against an 845,000-ton requirement produces only a 29 percent invasion chance, despite an overwhelming British concentration against the nearby French surface force.