Would Japan have been better building more I-200 submarines instead of I-400s?
Short answerI-200s were the better general fleet investment, while I-400s were specialized strategic strike boats whose value depended on being available early.
NotesThe I-400 program served a specialized strike mission. Eighteen boats carrying three aircraft each would provide fifty-four aircraft for attacks on targets such as the Panama Canal or San Diego, where a Japanese carrier could not operate safely. Their greatest proposed value depended on having them ready for the opening of the Pacific War. In that counterfactual, attacks on the canal alongside Pearl Harbor could prolong the war. The I-200 program instead sought to replace separate cruiser-submarine and smaller-boat types with a common general-purpose submarine. If forced to choose between the programs, I-200 would be the broader fleet investment, although it would not perform I-400's particular aircraft-delivery mission.