The episode moves from the memorandum's probabilistic forecast to a categorical political assurance. Holtzendorff reportedly told Kaiser Wilhelm II that not one American would reach the European continent. That promise helped win approval for resuming unrestricted submarine warfare, but it left no room for uncertainty about transport, escorts, or American mobilisation. The comparison with later German wartime promises shows how a forecast can become more dangerous when leaders turn it into a guarantee.
Notable Point · 34:38-35:17
The promise that no American would reach Europe
To secure the Kaiser's approval, Holtzendorff reportedly gave his word as an officer that no American soldier would land in Europe.