What changes in a scenario where the German High Seas Fleet is not scuttled?
Short answerThe ships become bargaining assets in the peace settlement, creating an incentive for the United States to remain involved in their allocation.
NotesAn intact German fleet would make its division a major issue in the peace settlement. The counterfactual assumes British control of the ships and allocation through the Treaty of Versailles. Under that assumption, a separate American peace would forfeit access to the distribution. Additional ships for other powers could then upset American naval comparisons, with Japan singled out as a concern. The result is expected to complicate both the peace settlement and the later Washington negotiations.