Great powers and the illusion of a controlled war

The opening strategic argument treats pre-1914 belligerence as a symptom of insecurity rather than confidence. European powers had grown accustomed to wars occurring elsewhere and behaved as though they could decide when to intervene without suffering uncontrolled consequences themselves. The 1902-03 Venezuela crisis illustrates how a limited confrontation could have widened into an Atlantic war, while the concentration of defense industry in Britain and Germany shows where the material advantage then lay. Informal arrangements such as the Entente Cordiale added commitments without removing ambiguity about how a crisis would unfold. Distant naval squadrons and ambiguous commitments meant that improvised wartime decisions could turn a local encounter into part of a global conflict.