If Germany lost the Norwegian campaign

What changes if Germany fails to conquer Norway?

Germany loses ships and elite troops, Allied confidence rises, Norway remains an Allied base, and northern air and convoy routes put new pressure on Germany.

Failure in Norway could cost Germany a significant part of its surface fleet and elite formations. Britain and France would gain a badly needed early victory before the campaign in France, while Swedish calculations could also change. An Allied Norway could be supplied along a protected northern convoy route patrolled from British bases. Norwegian airfields would open new bombing approaches and force Germany to divert aircraft north. Fighting over Norway and Denmark could drain German air power while the western campaign was developing. The result reaches well beyond the ships and troops lost in the original invasion.