How vulnerable would France be if Germany moderated its naval program and restored its pre-First World War alliances?
Short answerHe argues that reduced German naval competition could align Britain with Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Japan, leaving France isolated and Russia strategically surrounded.
NotesThe answer treats the Anglo-German naval race as a hinge in the alliance system. If Berlin built only enough naval strength for France and Russia rather than challenging Britain, London might regard Russia as the larger threat. The resulting coalition would give Italy British and German backing, Austria-Hungary powerful partners, and Japan support from both major naval and military powers. Russia would face hostile powers on several fronts, while German and British links to the Ottoman Empire could increase the pressure. France or Russia would struggle to break this alignment apart.