The preferred outcome is an early German withdrawal after a costly battlecruiser action. In about 120 simulated variations, reaching a full Grand Fleet battle required forcing Scheer to continue. Losses in the German scouting group would make a pursuit of the faster Anglo-Japanese force less attractive. A clash costing each side two battlecruisers could still be claimed as a German victory, while the British have Renown and Repulse coming into service. The destructive full-fleet encounter therefore depends on Scheer continuing a pursuit that the simulation results suggest he would abandon.
Notable Point · 1:23:30-1:33:26
The likeliest German response is to break off early
Repeated simulations suggest that Scheer is more likely to abandon the pursuit after a bloodier run to the south than accept a decisive fleet engagement.