How would Britain and France react to a 1934 German programme for six 25,000-ton battleships, three 45,000-ton carriers, and forty-eight 3,500-ton light cruisers by 1941?
Short answerThey would abandon restraint and expand capital ships, carriers, and cruisers, creating a broad naval race that also drains German resources from other priorities.
NotesThe proposed programme begins in 1934 and aims to deliver six 25,000-ton battleships, three 45,000-ton carriers, and forty-eight 3,500-ton light cruisers by 1941. Such a programme would probably prevent the Second London Naval Treaty, since Britain and France would have little reason to accept further restraint. Britain's initial battleship response is imagined as Lion-type ships, accompanied by more Town-class cruisers and larger carriers. The required German yard investment would be visible well before those ships entered service. France would react, and British expansion would then affect American, Japanese, and Italian decisions. The resulting race would deny Germany the advantage of adding ships while everyone else followed historical plans. Germany would also have to divert industrial effort from its land forces or other parts of its economy.