Conventional deterrence depends on forces that can actually deploy and be sustained. Black Sea access constraints can stop outside supporters from delivering promised help, regardless of their stated commitment. Geography therefore determines whether a deterrent threat is credible in practice. The same constraint could protect Russian interests in one crisis while trapping and weakening Soviet naval forces in another.
Notable Point · 49:34-50:09
Geography and logistics limit naval deterrence
A concise caveat explains that deterrence promises mean little when geography and logistics prevent supporting forces from reaching the threatened fleet.