A contingency can deserve preparation even when its likelihood is low, because its consequences would be severe. In the terminology used here, geographic weaknesses are enduring risks, while political threats change as relationships between countries change. Risk and threat have different meanings in other analytical contexts, so these definitions are qualified. A distant country becoming hostile creates different problems from the same change in a neighbour across a long shared border. Defences and contingency arrangements therefore need to account for geography before a friendly relationship deteriorates.
Notable Point · 1:22:16-1:23:35
Geography persists when allies and threats change
Persistent geographic exposure gives states a reason to prepare for severe contingencies even while neighbouring countries remain friendly.