Victory need not prevent a later Russian revolution to change the war. Food, exports, weapons, uniforms, and battlefield success could postpone political collapse while maintaining a grinding eastern front. Germany would then lack the opportunity to shift large forces west for its final offensives, potentially shortening the conflict by a year or more. The estimate is explicitly counterfactual and depends on the Black Sea route keeping Russia in effective combat long enough to deny Germany that redeployment window.
Notable Point ยท 1:37:20-1:44:27
How Gallipoli success could shorten the war
Keeping Russia supplied and fighting denies Germany the troop transfers that followed the Russian collapse and Brest-Litovsk.