Four CVA-01 carriers into the twenty-first century

If all four CVA-01 carriers were built, when would they be replaced?

Replacement would likely begin around the 2020s, after decades of rotating the four hulls through active service, reserve, and refit.

Commissioning from the late 1970s into the early 1980s could leave the class serving until replacement began in the 2020s. Fleet expects political pressure to reduce four ships to three and eventually two, while Dr. Clarke thinks a rotation with about two ships crewed could keep all four hulls available longer. The other ships could alternate between deep refit and ready reserve. Their existence would greatly strengthen British carrier power during a Falklands crisis, but deterrence would still depend on communicating willingness and readiness to use that force. In this scenario, Spring Train could place a fully worked-up carrier battle group near the Atlantic entrance to the Mediterranean, giving Argentina a visible indication of British capability.