Four CVA-01 carriers and the Falklands counterfactual

What might four CVA-01 carriers have changed in the Falklands War, and when would they need replacing?

The assumed schedule leaves two carriers available in 1982 and raises the possibility of deterring invasion. Otherwise Argentina faces a larger conventional air wing with early warning; replacement timing depends on service lives of roughly 30 to 40 years.

The assumed programme commissions carriers in 1975, 1978, 1981 and 1984, with two expected to be available for the Falklands campaign. One proposed consequence is that Argentina might decide against invading; otherwise it would face Phantoms and Buccaneers with Gannet or possibly Hawkeye early warning. A fleet of four British ships could also reduce unit costs and make new-build carriers more attractive to India or Australia. Expected service lives of 30 to 40 years would put replacements across the 2000s, 2010s and potentially the 2020s. After Phantoms and Buccaneers, a Hornet or Super Hornet air group is considered likely within the scenario. Tomcats are another possibility, conditional on the carriers being built strongly enough.