Why foreign carrier responses cannot be predicted in detail

Would American and Japanese aircraft technology change along with the British programme?

Yes, but the direction cannot be forecast precisely because intelligence, treaty choices, and design responses create too many feedback loops.

British scout carriers would influence what American and Japanese observers studied and how their navies developed aviation. Their responses would depend on what intelligence services learned and how each navy interpreted the British changes. Each decision would also alter the circumstances of later design choices. The direction of those responses cannot be reconstructed confidently enough to specify exact aircraft or programmes.