Would skipping Tulagi improve the Coral Sea ambush?

If Fletcher had not attacked Tulagi on 4 May 1942, would Yorktown and Lexington have had a better chance of surprising the Japanese at Coral Sea?

Probably not; additional air-defense escorts would have improved their prospects more than cancelling the Tulagi strike.

Cancelling Fletcher's 4 May 1942 strike on Tulagi is not expected to improve Yorktown and Lexington's chance of surprising the Japanese carriers substantially. It would change events, but the strike is not treated as the decisive reason for their later difficulties. Additional escorts are the preferred counterfactual improvement. A couple of Atlanta-class cruisers per carrier are suggested as a way to prevent much heavier losses during the early carrier battles, including Coral Sea and Midway.