Chapter ยท 57:00-1:03:40

The 5:3 ratio deepened Japan's security dilemma

A 10:7 ratio could have preserved an Anglo-American numerical advantage while leaving Japan less compelled to seek hidden qualitative offsets.

Notes

Japan could not afford unrestricted parity, yet the historical ratio made its leaders fear that Britain and the United States could overwhelm it whenever they chose. In this interpretation, that insecurity creates a security dilemma: a state that expects to be steamrolled will search for hidden qualitative advantages even after accepting formal limits. Twenty capital ships for each Anglo-American navy and fourteen for Japan would preserve a combined forty-to-fourteen margin while giving Japan the 10:7 relationship it regarded as minimally safe. Applying the same ratio to carriers would still leave Britain and the United States with twenty between them against seven Japanese ships, but with less incentive for Japan to evade the agreement.