A stronger British fleet at Ceylon or Singapore leaves Japan unable to ignore four British carriers and several fast capital ships while launching its southern offensive. With fewer German submarines, Ark Royal is also less likely to suffer its historical loss, helping make the four-carrier concentration possible. A Pearl Harbor attack may still occur, but a delayed or more cautious Japanese push gives British and American forces time to unite. British radar-directed fighter defence and night scouting would complement American daylight carrier strikes in a major fleet battle near the Philippines. Defeat of the Kido Butai is a counterfactual possibility rather than a certainty, but Japan must now defeat two concentrated fleets instead of isolated detachments.
Chapter · 2:24:23-2:37:58
A stronger Far East fleet changes Japan's calculus
Forces freed from Norway and the Mediterranean could give Britain a carrier-heavy Far East fleet able to combine with American carriers after Pearl Harbor.