Starting in 1960, how could either the Royal Navy or Argentine Navy be covertly prepared for a Falklands war expected about twenty years later?
Short answerBuild larger Invincibles and retain missile-converted Tiger-class cruisers, using NATO and out-of-area missions to justify the improvements without creating a force that deters the assumed war.
NotesThe answer develops the Royal Navy side of the scenario, beginning with greater ship range justified by North Atlantic anti-submarine commitments. A full CVA-01 carrier program is judged likely to deter Argentina and therefore conflict with the condition that the war still occurs. The preferred compromise is a larger Invincible class carrying more aircraft. Another proposal keeps Tiger, Blake, and potentially Lion for missile and command conversions inspired by the US Navy's Albany. Retaining 6-inch guns alongside a RIM-66 launcher is proposed as a way to address both Belgrano and air defence. Participants disagree about how discreetly a carrier increase could be funded. The response suggests making the case through Soviet surface raiders and deployments outside the main NATO area.