British contingency planning extended beyond retired Whirlwinds because Royal Air Force computer simulations predicted that Argentine aircraft and missiles might annihilate the task force. One reported option reached as far as considering HMS Belfast if losses became extreme. Britain did lose ships, but the predicted destruction of the fleet did not occur. The comparison warns that computer simulations, like exercises, can mislead when their inputs and assumptions are not evaluated correctly.
Notable Point · 33:05-33:54
Falklands contingency plans expose model assumptions
Plans to reactivate old equipment reflected forecasts of catastrophic fleet losses, while the actual campaign showed how strongly simulations depend on their assumptions.