Notable Point · 3:53:19-3:55:55

Why paper strength misread the Falklands air war

Predictions that Argentina should have won the Falklands air war are challenged through Michael Clapp's reported response and a recollection about how naval defence was represented in simulations.

Notes

Claims that Argentina should have won the air war depend on the measures used to compare the forces. Clarke recalls Michael Clapp rejecting an RAF officer's judgment that he should have been sunk with the response, "Your metrics are wrong." The criticism challenges the model itself instead of treating pilot training and Sidewinders as a complete explanation for an unexpected result. He also recounts a simulation in which a retired submariner commanded the defending naval force despite lacking training in shipboard air defence. That recollection raises a specific problem with using naval service alone as a qualification to represent a different warfare specialty. Argentine pilots' ability and their logistical circumstances should be distinguished from flaws in the assessments used to predict the result.