Falklands air defence changes sharply

The Falklands War is still expected in this counterfactual because Britain's diplomatic signalling failures remain. Britain already possessed carriers and Sea Harriers historically, and their presence had not prevented the invasion. The operational picture changes from 28 Sea Harriers without airborne early warning to perhaps 40 or 48 fighters and eight AEW helicopters across Hermes and Invincible. Forty fighters assumes Hermes retains sixteen alongside Invincible's 24; reaching 48 requires Hermes to take 24 as well. That force could sustain multiple four-aircraft combat air patrols, detect low-flying attackers beyond the ship radar horizon, and allow different carrier positions. Atlantic Conveyor, San Carlos, and the picket ships could receive much denser protection, while Invincible's own Sea Wolf launchers add a close defensive layer. More complete air control might also cut Hercules resupply flights and permit Sea Eagle attacks on Argentine surface forces. Argentine pilots could still win individual engagements, but the task force would be far harder to surprise or penetrate.