Interwar Royal Navy exercises show how training assumptions can distort conclusions about what an enemy would attack. Because exercise pilots pursued prestigious targets, the results appeared to support destroyers without high-angle or dual-purpose main guns. In wartime, attacking an exposed escort may be the more practical or survivable choice than penetrating the screen around a high-status unit. Models, games, and exercises need to account for fear, risk, and real operational incentives before they guide force design.
Notable Point · 50:49-54:25
Why peacetime exercises can mislead force design
Exercises can create false confidence when participants seek prestige targets or accept risks that real crews and commanders would avoid in war.