Japan could leave Hong Kong's defense to the army and wait for the Allies to advance into the East China Sea, farther from Philippine support. By then the war would probably be well into 1940, allowing Britain to deploy armored carriers alongside a large American and Allied force. Successful intelligence could position British squadrons for night strikes before a massed dawn attack and capital-ship follow-up. The British force is expected to retain widespread night proficiency, while American carriers might have some capable squadrons without the whole force reaching that standard. Delay therefore helps the coalition concentrate more ships and aircraft, even as Japan seeks a more favorable place to fight.
Notable Point · 1:35:41-1:39:01
A 1940 East China Sea battle favors Allied concentration
By 1940, an East China Sea engagement could bring armored British carriers, American carriers, submarines, destroyers, intelligence, and capital ships into one layered Allied blow.