Early reliable shells could break off the battlecruiser action

The central operational prediction holds British fire control, gunnery, and the wider battle constant while improving shell quality before 1916. Heavier damage to Derfflinger, Seydlitz, and Lützow during the battlecruiser phases could make continued pursuit untenable, especially once the Fifth Battle Squadron's fifteen-inch guns join in. The reform would also reach British twelve- and thirteen-and-a-half-inch ammunition, so its effects are wider than one squadron or calibre. Hipper's force would then have an incentive to turn for home before a full fleet encounter, while Scheer must wonder how close the rest of the Grand Fleet is. The later phases of Jutland may never occur in this counterfactual.