Dogger Bank is the branch point after which the counterfactual becomes much less predictable. If Germany loses SMS Seydlitz, a sister ship, or SMS Derfflinger as well as SMS Blücher, its numerical disadvantage against the Grand Fleet becomes harder to ignore. An earlier fleet-in-being posture could prevent a Jutland-style sortie and give Britain another year to seek ways of attacking ships in protected harbors. The later balance also depends on whether Britain retains more R-class battleships or proceeds with Renown and Repulse. If two 15-inch Tigers survive the war, they are expected to affect the treaty system, although no particular settlement is predicted.
Chapter · 1:21:01-1:26:53
How a harsher Dogger Bank could prevent Jutland
Heavy German losses in January 1915 could produce an earlier fleet-in-being posture, redirect British effort toward harbor attack, and leave surviving 15-inch Tigers to shape the postwar treaty balance.