Q&A · 2:52:47-2:53:30

What a small Ukrainian submarine force might have changed

Even a few submarines could impose a costly anti-submarine search burden, though their survival and operational effect would remain uncertain.

Question

Could a few diesel-electric submarines have helped Ukraine during Russia's 2022 invasion?

Short answer

They could have complicated Russian operations and perhaps achieved a prominent sinking, but their ability to survive and remain operational is unknowable.

Notes

Even a small undersea threat would impose a continuing anti-submarine burden. Russia would have to devote ships, aircraft, sensors, and attention whenever Ukrainian boats might be at sea. That diversion could complicate other Black Sea operations even if the submarines fired rarely. Their survival, readiness, and actual successes cannot be inferred from the counterfactual alone.