Chapter ยท 0:22-2:57

Deterrence before war starts

Deterrence works before war begins, and the interwar treaty system shows why firm commitments must be communicated clearly.

Notes

Deterrence is a political and military problem rather than simply a matter of possessing weapons. The best time to stop a war is before it starts, just as preventing a crime is preferable to reacting afterward. In this account, the interwar treaty system failed because states communicated its warnings and commitments poorly, rather than because the agreements were inherently defective. Diplomatic language must signal resolve without supplying a casus belli, since excessive caution can sound weak or evasive. Plain speaking can help, although government institutions often discourage officials from being equally blunt with superiors and subordinates. Formal agreements deter only when potential aggressors understand what other states are prepared to defend.