Why defence planning needs an insurance policy

Jeune École ideas helped justify restricted funding and deflect complaints in late nineteenth-century France. In this account, confidence in a predicted future became a substitute for evidence about what the navy could actually field. Defence and security require equipment that exists, works, and can be sustained. The practical watchwords are trust, verify, and insure, especially while a supposedly decisive technology is still developing. Completing Vanguard and retaining the Iowa class provide examples of battleships kept as insurance after aircraft carriers appeared dominant. Battleships remained in service after World War II with France, Britain, Russia, and other nations despite confidence in carriers, particularly those operating jets. Keeping a fallback reduces the consequences of a mistaken forecast in national security.