The present character of a government is not a durable defence assumption. Russia illustrates how a state that appears manageable can become more dangerous as leadership and risk tolerance change. In an autocracy, a leader's personal judgement can alter policy without the same visible checks and warning points found in a democracy. Britain must therefore consider possible disruption around places such as the Taiwan Strait because trade, finance, shipping, and insurance there can affect its economy even when the goods never touch a British port.
Notable Point · 2:15:13-2:17:45
Why defence plans must outlast today's intentions
Force structure must account for what other states could become and do over a ship's lifetime, beyond the intentions of today's leaders.