Would defeating the Pearl Harbor raid still mobilize the United States, and would Germany enter the war?
Short answerYes. Attack plus victory would energize the United States, and Hitler might still make the strategically needless decision to declare war.
NotesIn this counterfactual, the attack itself would still create public outrage even if the United States destroys the attacking carrier force. Victory would then add confidence that the Pacific war could be short, strengthening rather than weakening the impulse to punish Japan. Hitler would still be expected to declare war in this interpretation because the historical decision was strategically unnecessary even after Japan's successful raid. The same analysis rejects a conspiracy explanation for American surprise, since institutional complacency and hubris require fewer assumptions than a large secret plot.