The overall judgement is conditional. NATO's wider resources and American carrier striking power favour it over time, especially once Soviet naval demands compete with the army's needs in a broader European war. Wide operating areas and disrupted satellite reconnaissance would also make Allied carrier groups difficult targets to find and attack. The scenario becomes most dangerous when either leadership thinks it is about to lose a vital position. Pressure to break a stalemate, protect Norway, or preserve gains can make a limited conventional war difficult to keep limited.
Chapter · 3:37:20-3:45:05
A conventional NATO edge and the danger of escalation
The analysis gives NATO an edge in a prolonged conventional contest, but warns that either side's fear of defeat could make nuclear escalation the real danger.