Why short-war assumptions can force nuclear escalation

Are navies still suffering from the belief that a major war will end within days through nuclear escalation?

Yes; shallow conventional magazines can make nuclear escalation more likely by leaving no viable way to continue fighting after the first days.

The panel argues that the assumption of an immediate nuclear ending still distorts public and political thinking about conventional endurance. If ships cannot reload vertical-launch cells and magazines are sized for only a few days, the conventional force may be destroyed or exhausted before diplomacy ends the conflict. Leaders then face a choice between accepting defeat and relying on nuclear threats. Deep stocks, reloadable systems, and resilient conventional forces therefore support deterrence by preserving alternatives to escalation.