How the construction holiday created a catch-up incentive

How would the equitable treaty affect Germany's decision to risk ships such as Bismarck and Scharnhorst?

By allowing continued replacement, it would deny Germany the opportunity created when the historical treaty froze older fleets and made a few newer ships appear disproportionately valuable.

The treaty stopped capital-ship construction to avoid repeating the Anglo-German naval race. Some politicians blamed that race for the First World War while discounting the alliance system and other participating naval powers. Freezing existing fleets could produce the opposite incentive: a challenger might believe a small number of later, superior ships could catch or overturn the established powers. The attempted cure recreated the technological opportunity that Dreadnought had once seemed to offer.