In the counterfactual, widespread evasion could make each navy feel less constrained by the treaty. Japan might feel less singled out if it obtained the capability it wanted while other powers did the same. Existing talks would then provide time to address problems beyond naval limits. The expectation still rules out a durable renewal of the same treaty system. Better relations and more concerted efforts remain possible, although the argument expressly doubts that discussion would solve every problem given the paths individual powers were taking.
Notable Point · 53:41-55:09
Greater naval confidence could open diplomatic discussions
If every signatory feels less constrained, the treaty conference may create a period for wider negotiation even without producing a durable successor agreement.