Why does a later crisis over a British concession not show that Britain and Japan would avoid war in January 1939?
Short answerThe concession dispute concerned Chinese murder suspects. A Japanese attack that sinks a British ship and may kill sailors, followed by naval retaliation, would create far greater pressure to continue fighting.
NotesHanding over four Chinese suspects accused of murder did not create the same political pressure as the hypothetical loss of a British ship and sailors. British diplomats received assurances about the suspects' treatment before the handover, although those assurances were not honored. In the scenario, an initial attack and naval retaliation turn the crisis into a direct national affront for Britain and Japan. The later concession dispute therefore does not show that this earlier clash could be defused easily.