Computer simulations can preserve exercise blind spots

Will lithium-ion batteries and other air-independent propulsion changes transform submarine warfare?

They may, but simulations and exercises cannot establish the wartime result with certainty because their inputs can preserve untested assumptions.

The wartime effect of lithium-ion batteries and air-independent propulsion cannot be predicted with certainty. Paper studies and exercises can show possibilities, but computer models are built by people and depend on the data and assumptions entered into them. If that input comes mainly from exercises, a simulation can reinforce the same false positives already present in the training system. Historical combat evidence can broaden the model but introduces interpretation of its own. Simulation is one source of evidence and cannot replace critical judgment.