Lunar expeditions were much smaller than the movement needed to establish a self-sustaining population. Apollo carried three exceptionally fit and specialized people for only a few days, and even those missions did not always go according to plan. A modest colony of 10,000 people might contain enough varied skills to sustain itself, but transporting them eight at a time requires 1,250 trips. Six-to-nine-month voyages make that throughput impossible for one ship and extreme even for hundreds of small vehicles. A colonization transport therefore needs capacity in the hundreds rather than the crew size of a survey capsule.
Chapter · 42:43-45:36
Colony population math outruns small spacecraft
Apollo-style crews prove that short expeditions are possible, but moving even 10,000 settlers eight at a time would require 1,250 voyages and an implausibly large fleet.