How might the Cold War have gone hot in 1991 after a Soviet hardliner coup?
Short answerA coherent Soviet offensive is unlikely when former allies can remain neutral or oppose it, while NATO initially expects to defend until US reinforcements arrive.
NotesA Soviet hardliner attempt to start a war in 1991 would face the loss of the political and geographic conditions behind earlier Cold War plans. Germany was reunited, removing East Germany as the expected springboard for an offensive westward. Most former Warsaw Pact members were already separating from Moscow and could declare neutrality even if the Soviet government claimed to be defending itself. Invading those states to reach NATO could instead push them into cooperation with the alliance and shift the front toward the Soviet border. NATO's expected opening posture was defensive until American reinforcements arrived, making the premise of both sides attacking at once another complication.