What could China and Taiwan learn from the Russia-Ukraine war?
Short answerChina may emphasize speed, while Taiwan can strengthen deterrence through distributed resistance and a durable separate political identity.
NotesChinese leaders are unlikely to read Russian failure as proof that unification itself is impossible. They may instead conclude that delay is dangerous and that the decisive phase must be compressed. Taiwan can draw the opposite lesson by distributing light weapons and preparing the population to make occupation costly. The longer a separate Taiwanese identity develops, the harder it becomes to convert a landing into a politically successful conquest without extensive violence.