China, spheres of influence, and restraint

How would the treaty staying intact affect China and the Soviet Union?

The alliance could discourage Japanese interference in British spheres in China while limiting open British support for China. Its effect on Japanese-Soviet conflicts is left unresolved.

Japan would risk losing the alliance by pushing into British spheres of influence in China. That restraint could create areas where Japanese forces are less likely to intervene. Britain would still avoid becoming China's open patron, even as British industry and shipping might continue moving supplies through indirect channels. The result protects selected imperial interests rather than Chinese sovereignty as a whole. The consequences for Japanese-Soviet conflicts remain unresolved here, although Japanese initiation of those conflicts is identified as relevant.