China's fleet buildup and the test of replacement

Does China need a navy able to protect global trade in order to become a full superpower?

Yes, though naval power is only part of global power. The answer also raises uncertainty about how China will replace the ships it is building.

Protecting global trade requires naval power, though a worldwide superpower needs more than a fleet alone. In this 2021 comparison, China's steady shipbuilding coincides with many American Cold War-era platforms reaching replacement age after the post-1991 procurement slowdown. That timing can make Chinese growth appear faster relative to the United States. The next test would come when those rapidly built Chinese ships needed replacement: would they be renewed, or simply remain in service for a long time? The answer also leaves open whether the buildup is intended to last or is aimed at a nearer decision point in the 2030s.