How many carriers might China build, and could it use them in future invasions of Japan or Australia?
Short answerSix is a near-term guess, and the eventual number depends on China's intended missions. Invading Japan or Australia would be much harder than an already difficult Taiwan operation.
NotesSix carriers is offered as an immediate working estimate rather than a fixed prediction. The meaningful number depends on what China wants the force to accomplish and how the ships fit its wider strategy. Near-term invasion scenarios against Japan or Australia appear unlikely because both demand much more than operating carrier groups nearby. Even Taiwan, which is geographically closer and often treated as the simpler case, would be a difficult amphibious operation. Carrier construction alone does not supply the lift, logistics, control, and political conditions required for conquest.