Panama's trade loss reinforces US railways

The economic case is narrower than the naval one: the canal is most useful for particular routes, especially Europe to the US west coast. Without the canal, American rail transport would likely carry more east-west trade. The older clipper race demonstrates how valuable the Europe-Asia route already was before Suez shortened it, reinforcing the canal's unusually strong commercial logic. Without that proven return, Panama would look more like a strategic bill Congress must fund than an investment expected to repay itself. The counterfactual allows no single firm outcome because preventing either canal requires changes with consequences beyond shipping.