Q&A · 3:02:23-3:04:00

South American naval powers in the treaty system

A treaty counterfactual shows how adding South American capital-ship navies could destabilize ratios among the established great powers.

Question

How would continued Argentine, Brazilian, and Chilean naval power affect interwar treaties and World War II?

Short answer

Their capital-ship demands would require another treaty tier and trigger larger claims from European, Japanese, American, and Russian fleets, making agreement much harder to sustain.

Notes

Argentina, Brazil, and Chile would need formal places in the treaty system if they continued building capital ships. Even an allowance of two each could encourage France and Italy to seek more, followed by Japan, Britain, and the United States. Britain could also press for Australia and Canada to receive separate treatment instead of remaining inside a single imperial allowance. Including more naval powers would make Russia harder to exclude. Japan's insistence on superiority over Russia would then collide with a Russian demand for parity. Each additional participant introduces claims that make the hypothetical agreement harder to negotiate and sustain.