Retaining Hong Kong would create a forward-base liability

Would Britain retaining Hong Kong help a stronger 1990s Pacific containment strategy?

Probably not; Hong Kong would be an exposed political and military flash point whose proximity to China undermines its value as a forward base.

The panel argues that Hong Kong would be extremely difficult to defend and so close to China that its forward position becomes a liability rather than an effective base. Retention also requires reversing decades of British policy and confronting the expiry of the lease. A more distant multinational or peacekeeping arrangement around Taiwan is offered as a better fit for the intended deterrent role.