Portugal, Spain, and Venetian convoys in the canal counterfactual

Wouldn't the canal route fall on Portugal's side of the overseas agreement?

The response proposes Spanish access before that agreement, while the Venetian alternative depends on the city's resources, coalitions, and secure convoy bases beyond the canal.

Spain is proposed as reaching the route before the papal agreement underlying the objection. Venice is then suggested as another likely early user. The answer accepts substantial Venetian involvement while distinguishing a city state's resources from the numbers available to Spain. A counterpoint emphasizes Venice's empire and its ability to lead coalitions against the Ottomans. Islands beyond the canal would provide places to assemble convoys before meeting opposition. In this hypothetical timeline, those Indian Ocean positions would help determine whether Venetian shipping could fight its way through.