Coral Sea night surface action counterfactual

Could Fletcher's surface fleet win a night attack on the Japanese carriers at Coral Sea, and could heavy escort losses prevent Midway even if Lexington and Yorktown survived?

The outcome hinges on detection: U.S. radar and ships give a chance, but Japanese night optics and torpedoes make the risk severe, and losing escorts could undermine Midway.

Carrier battles still depended on the rest of the fleet. Even if Lexington and Yorktown survived, losing their cruisers and destroyers could leave the United States unable to mount the Midway operation. The night action itself would turn on detection: limited U.S. radar offered an opportunity, while Japanese night optics and torpedo tactics made an undetected approach extremely dangerous. The Battle of Cape Bon shows how an attacker approaching from an unexpected direction can decide a night engagement before the victim has oriented guns or begun evasive action. The counterfactual therefore trades a possible tactical success at Coral Sea against the escort strength required for the next strategic battle.