If Japan forced China to surrender by August 1939, how would it affect relations with the US, Britain and France, and rivalry between Japan's army and navy?
Short answerThe Western powers are expected to remain hostile without going to war, while an emboldened Japanese army would face the demands of occupying China and look toward the Soviet frontier.
NotesAn early victory would strengthen the Imperial Japanese Army's political position and increase its interest in the Soviet frontier, especially as Germany and the USSR moved against Poland. The United States, Britain and France are expected to be angered by the victory but to avoid war while building their own forces. Occupying China would absorb manpower and infrastructure, restricting Japan's freedom to act far beyond its new borders. The discussion considers whether Chinese troops could be drafted into a northern campaign. Japanese armour would still be poorly suited to fighting Soviet mechanized formations, and success in China would intensify interservice rivalry.