Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 44:42-45:58

Western expectations before the First Sino-Japanese War

Contemporary assumptions about Qing weakness explain why Western observers did not expect China's larger forces to defeat Japan in 1894.

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Question

What did Western observers expect when the First Sino-Japanese War began, and did they assume China's larger forces would win?

Short answer

They generally regarded Qing China as weak and worried that a strong Japanese victory might open the way for Russian expansion.

Notes

Western expectations of the First Sino-Japanese War rested on an assessment of Qing China as weak despite its larger forces. Britain's interest in preserving a balance among the powers in China discouraged any one rival from gaining too much. Observers consequently worried that a decisive Japanese victory would create an opening for Russian expansion. The expected outcome therefore depended on possible intervention as well as the forces fielded by China and Japan.